The Selective Echo Election Wrap: Obama victory not a significant political realignment … yet
Published by Professor Les November 5th, 2008 in Salt Lake City, Community Dialogue, Politics, Communication, Current Events. Tags: obama and demographic trends, obama victory not a significant political realignment, obamas national victory, Salt Lake City, the selection echo and 2008 election wrap up.Editor’s Note: This post updates the night-time information and wraps up the election coverage.
Former GOP Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich rightfully slammed his party’s showing at the election but he also noted that this was a “performance election,” not an “ideological election.” And, I think there is evidence to suggest that, contrary to pre-election expectations that a major political alignment was in store for 2008, Obama’s victory happened because he succeeded brilliantly at energizing the party’s base better than any Democratic presidential nominee has done in a long time.
He is the first Democrat since Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964 to get more than 51 percent of the popular vote. He is the first presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan to win the mighty trio of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. And, he flipped states such as Indiana, which last went to a Democrat 44 years ago. If North Carolina goes to him, he will likely finish with 364 electoral votes. Georgia has yet to be officially called but the tight margins favor McCain at the moment.
Better than any of his partisan predecessors, he took supreme advantage of demographic trends, doing a much better job in white-collar, suburban counties in the Midwest and the West. However, he appears to have done worse in the South than the last three Democratic presidential candidates. This explains why he flipped states such as Colorado, Virginia, Florida, and, it appears at this time, North Carolina. Of course, Indiana does not fit neatly into this portfolio. It is apparent that Indiana voters were furious at the GOP because of the economy.
The segment of white educated voters was likely the defining factor in his victory. Obama racked up huge margins as predicted among African-American, Hispanic, and young voters. In 2004, exit polls suggested that John Kerry fell 17 points short among all white voters. However, Obama shaved five points off that deficit, thanks to keeping it competitive with McCain among college-educated white voters (51-47). A political realignment could occur depending upon the outcome of his first term.
Indeed, Obama did energize the base. Turnout appears to be the highest since at least 1964. Professor Michael McDonald at George Mason University offers the following:
“My preliminary national turnout rate for those eligible to vote is 62.6% or 133.3 million ballots cast. This number may yet rise further as absentee ballots arrive and provisional ballots are processed, particularly in some western states. Until these outstanding ballots are counted, I would like to provide a conservative estimate. This turnout rate would be the largest since the 62.8% of 1964. If we top that number, which we might, the next highest turnout rate would be 63.8% in 1960.”
Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Colorado show impressive preliminary turnouts at between 72 and 80 percent. Key battlegrounds such as Ohio, Missouri, Georgia, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina also were active, with between 65 and 70 percent turnout. Utah may end up with just a bit more than 54 percent — perhaps the third lowest in the nation behind the District of Columbia and West Virginia. Texas was just nominally better. That would explain the Democrats’ disappointing showing in Utah’s state legislative races where they only picked up 3 state house seats and none in the state senate.
Obama’s coattail effects also may have been somewhat limited. For the U.S. Senate, wins were readily apparent in North Carolina, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia but Republicans held onto seats in Maine and Kentucky where the incumbents were locked in competitive races. The GOP also won a special election in Mississippi.
The Democrats sit at 56 seats — currently a net pickup of five — in the new senate and, depending upon a recount in one and a runoff in another, they may top out at 58. Gordon Smith seems to have held off Jeff Merkley in Oregon. Smith had effectively distanced himself from Bush and McCain in a fiercely contested race. The undecided races are:
GEORGIA:
Neither candidate has 50 percent of the vote so a Dec. 2 runoff is anticipated. Saxby Chambliss, the incumbent, holds a 49.9 percent to 46.7 percent advantage over Jim Martin with 96 percent of the state precincts counted, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office. Libertarian Allen Buckley had 3.4 percent of the vote.
MINNESOTA:
Sen. Norm Coleman finished ahead of Al Franken early Wednesday in the final vote count, but his 571-vote margin falls within the state’s mandatory recount law. That law requires a recount any time the margin between the top two candidates is less than one-half of one percent.
ALASKA:
With all but three of Alaska’s 438 precincts reporting, the Republican Ted Stevens holds a 1.5 percent advantage over Democrat Mark Begich — 48 percent to 46.5 percent. About 4,000 votes separate the candidates. The thin margin means the Senate race might not be decided for two weeks. It is amazing that Stevens held out in his race, given his recent convictions.
The Democratic gains in the U.S. House of Representatives also seem to have fallen short of the expected 25-33 seat range. They likely will pick up 17 or 18 seats. Democrats unseated at least 10 Republican incumbents and captured at least 10 other districts that Republicans left open to retire or seek other office. Four Democratic incumbents were defeated.
PROP 8:
Out of more than 9.9 million votes cast, the measure banning same-sex marriage passed by a 52-48 margin in California. In 2000, more than 61 percent of the voters approved a measure that defined traditional marriage, setting in stage the legal battle that culminated in this measure.Similar measures passed in Florida and Arizona and voters in Arkansas passed an anti-gay foster parent and adoption proposition. On the other hand, in Connecticut, where same-sex marriages will be allowed starting next week, voters rejected a state constitutional convention that would have blocked the start of marriages there.

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